{ "schema_version": "1.0", "study_id": "S43", "run_id": "S43-a92f1ea2-98e410fd", "code_version": "a92f1ea2f8e5f77ebb10775722577f8f98162307", "source_sha256": { "research_program/__init__.py": "5abb4829b477fd3068ee4c11dad2b59cd33e90aad06a17a5e9fb2f840a75abf1", "research_program/evaluation.py": "09a5d060c34b8cd1e5a3330d90f5ff3e12adbca8cfe1ebe3297da2b91d227e45", "research_program/io.py": "16de123c16d80bce5eb8d6766224dec1729d7c00449c2528f2348d86ad68d35f", "research_program/validate.py": "3e6a591e2b77799bdf73683db438b2998e2e457340626c98b7ceed510ab3329e", "studies/S43/config.json": "4b4f1b3567742b3d33b25ccff5b95ac7b1bce73080e72121eb50ac49191d4757", "studies/S43/ingest.py": "82e7ddead9714f82dbe460a5c066f97c6c67e037f889085670ff87cdf605c17f", "studies/S43/models.py": "01d8171c7a13405476f30cfe42a25cacad7fd7ce4274afcd9c06ecee05f3b101", "studies/S43/study.py": "6ba27a7e50c60e26bf7886076e8089a5a010e59cebd8aaadbbfb4aa6a1c01842", "uv.lock": "15f381c7c88897e1df049af6297905625b6869a6c9ff110ab1647ec2d0f305f4" }, "evaluated_on": "2026-09-29", "data": { "source_url": "https://datacatalog.cookcountyil.gov/stories/s/Assessor-2025-Open-Data-Refresh/gzdr-q7c4/", "release": "April10,2024 characteristic snapshot plus September29,2026 extracts of May2024–December2025 sales", "sha256": "98e410fda7c3deb9e6c3f20852fa60cbc8ae0ac810159e7a7e9a5e9dcb4cb5e2", "license": "Cook County public-data terms; no accuracy/completeness warranty or endorsement. No separate Creative Commons license specified.", "citation": "Cook County Assessor’s Office, 2024 final residential model input and Parcel Sales wvhk-k5uv; retrieved September29,2026.", "coverage": "Single-family, single-card, single-parcel scope; fixed pre-sale features and later recorded sales." }, "target": { "label": "Historical single-family sale price", "estimand": "Conditional log-price prediction for eligible recorded sales; primary median percentage error", "prediction_cutoff": "Frozen characteristics object last modified April10,2024, preceding every sale; no closing-date predictors", "horizon": "Final sales April–December2025, with intervening January–March calibration", "unit": "Recorded sale; parcel repeats stay in spatial uncertainty clusters" }, "cohort": "Eligible Cook County single-family sale records April–December2025 joined to the earlier fixed property snapshot.", "samples": { "total": 132773, "train": 20846, "validation": 4327, "calibration": 5828, "test": 24551, "test_parcels": 23898, "test_spatial_cells": 331 }, "models": [ { "id": "local_median", "label": "Local training-sale median", "specification": { "target": "log sale price", "max_leaves": null, "fixed_hyperparameters": "See frozen protocol and models.py" } }, { "id": "hedonic", "label": "Regularized hedonic regression", "specification": { "target": "log sale price", "max_leaves": null, "fixed_hyperparameters": "See frozen protocol and models.py" } }, { "id": "spatial_boosting", "label": "Spatial gradient boosting", "specification": { "target": "log sale price", "max_leaves": 31, "fixed_hyperparameters": "See frozen protocol and models.py" } }, { "id": "physical_boosting", "label": "Physical attributes only", "specification": { "target": "log sale price", "max_leaves": 31, "fixed_hyperparameters": "See frozen protocol and models.py" } } ], "metrics": [ { "name": "median_ape_pct", "model": "local_median", "estimate": 22.63157895, "unit": "percent", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 21.5854106, "upper": 23.88433788, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "log_rmse", "model": "local_median", "estimate": 0.41740456, "unit": "log USD", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 0.4030319, "upper": 0.43237363, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "median_absolute_error_USD", "model": "local_median", "estimate": 75996.45385612, "unit": "USD", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 72000.0, "upper": 81000.0, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "median_price_ratio", "model": "local_median", "estimate": 0.94444444, "unit": "ratio", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 0.93487537, "upper": 0.95238095, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "median_ape_pct", "model": "hedonic", "estimate": 17.49939066, "unit": "percent", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 16.6899647, "upper": 18.49063412, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "log_rmse", "model": "hedonic", "estimate": 0.33993685, "unit": "log USD", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 0.32490212, "upper": 0.35526141, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "median_absolute_error_USD", "model": "hedonic", "estimate": 60982.62484623, "unit": "USD", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 58530.05152686, "upper": 64303.89895444, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "median_price_ratio", "model": "hedonic", "estimate": 0.92915366, "unit": "ratio", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 0.92317729, "upper": 0.93454062, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "median_ape_pct", "model": "spatial_boosting", "estimate": 17.29119804, "unit": "percent", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 16.42092609, "upper": 18.36105933, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "log_rmse", "model": "spatial_boosting", "estimate": 0.33744811, "unit": "log USD", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 0.32240966, "upper": 0.35326713, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "median_absolute_error_USD", "model": "spatial_boosting", "estimate": 60996.16272491, "unit": "USD", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 58495.21164905, "upper": 64572.60643332, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "median_price_ratio", "model": "spatial_boosting", "estimate": 0.92819385, "unit": "ratio", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 0.92144255, "upper": 0.93451104, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "median_ape_pct", "model": "physical_boosting", "estimate": 26.47502548, "unit": "percent", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 25.22703389, "upper": 27.67663214, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "log_rmse", "model": "physical_boosting", "estimate": 0.48756949, "unit": "log USD", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 0.46510212, "upper": 0.51025737, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "median_absolute_error_USD", "model": "physical_boosting", "estimate": 95419.83283535, "unit": "USD", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 89881.10002955, "upper": 102080.81789158, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "median_price_ratio", "model": "physical_boosting", "estimate": 0.9108816, "unit": "ratio", "split": "April–December2025 sales", "lower": 0.88402614, "upper": 0.94281872, "confidence": 0.95 } ], "uncertainty": "500 paired .03-degree spatial-grid cluster bootstrap draws retain parcel repeats. Split-calibration log-residual bands use finite-sample order statistics; temporal/spatial dependence means empirical coverage is reported, not guaranteed.", "assumptions": [ "Snapshot features predate every included sale; later feature corrections are excluded.", "Recorded sales and legacy flags do not prove every transaction is arm’s length.", "Dollar intervals exponentiate log-residual bands and are not appraisals." ], "limitations": [ "A retrospective sale-date split cannot reconstruct historical sale-ingestion availability.", "Properties with multiple cards, land lines, parcel bundles or prorations are excluded; stated price/area bounds restrict generalization.", "The snapshot becomes stale as properties and markets change; later renovations are not observed.", "Calibration guarantees require exchangeability that geographic dependence and market drift can violate.", "Group median interval endpoints are summaries of individual bands, not confidence intervals for group market value.", "No causal effect, current address-level appraisal, tax appeal recommendation or realized commercial saving is claimed.", "Independent technical review is pending." ], "tables": { "audit": { "snapshot_rows": 1098988, "snapshot_unique_pins": 1091147, "snapshot_year_counts": { "2023": 1098988 }, "eligible_snapshot_parcels": 878069, "source_sales": 132773, "source_missing": { "pin": 0, "year": 0, "township_code": 0, "nbhd": 0, "class": 0, "sale_date": 0, "sale_price": 0, "doc_no": 0, "deed_type": 0, "is_multisale": 0, "num_parcels_sale": 0, "sale_filter_same_sale_within_365": 0, "sale_filter_less_than_10k": 0, "sale_filter_deed_type": 0, "row_id": 0 }, "source_repeated_document_rows": 18783, "excluded_publisher_sale_flags": 34637, "excluded_remaining_duplicate_documents": 0, "unmatched_sales": 45918, "matched_sales_before_scope": 52218, "excluded_sale_price": 857, "excluded_char_bldg_sf": 38, "excluded_char_land_sf": 58, "excluded_loc_latitude": 0, "excluded_loc_longitude": 0, 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