{ "schema_version": "1.0", "study_id": "S58", "run_id": "S58-9dd9fde5-183c5e51", "code_version": "9dd9fde5837bd032b6f3a13c5ae1e2ba7d768a05", "source_sha256": { "research_program/__init__.py": "5abb4829b477fd3068ee4c11dad2b59cd33e90aad06a17a5e9fb2f840a75abf1", "research_program/evaluation.py": "09a5d060c34b8cd1e5a3330d90f5ff3e12adbca8cfe1ebe3297da2b91d227e45", "research_program/io.py": "16de123c16d80bce5eb8d6766224dec1729d7c00449c2528f2348d86ad68d35f", "research_program/validate.py": "3e6a591e2b77799bdf73683db438b2998e2e457340626c98b7ceed510ab3329e", "studies/S58/config.json": "ea321f453558741fc6727b837ae2bef45110cd94b007f95e6b1e1cea91dcca5b", "studies/S58/ingest.py": "554d784a3c64b5cf67d4694b59c1823645bcf205ab2a727bd129a62e028e6c11", "studies/S58/study.py": "de008dccac6757cdece7eb27e98f5edb15d74f5c8181b7555e5250b869dbf9bb", "studies/S58/survival.py": "0063fc3524dc4314d69b5ee572850e2deff1bd45ae89ee84a025383ad8e73721", "uv.lock": "15f381c7c88897e1df049af6297905625b6869a6c9ff110ab1647ec2d0f305f4" }, "evaluated_on": "2026-09-29", "data": { "source_url": "https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/BPI_Challenge_2017/12696884", "release": "Original BPI Challenge 2017 XES; events through 2017-02-01T14:11:03.499Z", "sha256": "183c5e5189282779c811c78c33ff936351b3dd201165d612211fc220936f8249", "license": "4TU General Terms of Use (2016): noncommercial reuse, source citation and bibliographic publication notification.", "citation": "van Dongen, B. (2017): BPI Challenge 2017. Eindhoven University of Technology / 4TU.ResearchData. https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:5f3067df-f10b-45da-b98b-86ae4c7a310b", "coverage": "31,509 applications opened in 2016; 1,202,267 events through February 1, 2017." }, "target": { "label": "Restricted remaining time to first recorded Pending/Denied/Cancelled application status", "estimand": "Expected remaining discrete days capped at 30, among applications still active at the selected event prefix", "prediction_cutoff": "Only first 5,10 or20 application events; all related offers remain in the application split", "horizon": "30 days with daily intervals; complete final-horizon ascertainment", "unit": "Application; multiple event prefixes remain clustered" }, "cohort": "December2016 application arrivals; eligible prefixes observed before January1,2017. Later source events are outcomes only.", "samples": { "total": 31509, "train": 23472, "test": 2365, "test_prefixes": 6247, "validation": 3038, "events": { "test_late_prefixes": 3414, "test_observed_status_prefixes": 6064 } }, "models": [ { "id": "pooled_km", "label": "Pooled survival baseline", "specification": { "family": "discrete Kaplan–Meier", "stage_and_age": false, "horizon_days": 30 } }, { "id": "stage_age_km", "label": "Current stage and age baseline", "specification": { "family": "discrete Kaplan–Meier", "stage_and_age": true, "horizon_days": 30 } }, { "id": "hazard_boosting", "label": "Workflow hazard boosting", "specification": { "risk_rows": 1202715, "event_intervals": 47377, "features": [ "age_days", "last_gap_days", "max_gap_days", "mean_gap_days", "offers_created", "prefix", "activity:A_Create Application", "activity:A_Submitted", "activity:W_Handle leads", "activity:W_Complete application", "lifecycle:complete", "lifecycle:schedule", "lifecycle:withdraw", "activity:A_Concept", "activity:A_Accepted", "activity:O_Create Offer", "lifecycle:start", "lifecycle:suspend", "activity:O_Created", "activity:O_Sent (mail and online)", "activity:W_Call after offers", "activity:A_Complete", "lifecycle:ate_abort", "lifecycle:resume", "activity:O_Cancelled", "activity:W_Validate application", "activity:O_Sent (online only)", "activity:A_Validating", "activity:O_Returned", "activity:W_Call incomplete files", "activity:A_Incomplete", "activity:O_Accepted", "activity:W_Assess potential fraud", "activity:W_Shortened completion ", "stage", "last_activity", "last_lifecycle", "future_day" ], "categories": { "stage": { "A_Accepted": 0, "A_Complete": 1, "A_Concept": 2, "A_Incomplete": 3, "A_Submitted": 4, "A_Validating": 5 }, "last_activity": { "A_Accepted": 0, "A_Complete": 1, "A_Concept": 2, "A_Incomplete": 3, "A_Validating": 4, "O_Accepted": 5, "O_Cancelled": 6, "O_Create Offer": 7, "O_Created": 8, "O_Returned": 9, "O_Sent (mail and online)": 10, "O_Sent (online only)": 11, "W_Assess potential fraud": 12, "W_Call after offers": 13, "W_Call incomplete files": 14, "W_Complete application": 15, "W_Handle leads": 16, "W_Shortened completion ": 17, "W_Validate application": 18 }, "last_lifecycle": { "ate_abort": 0, "complete": 1, "resume": 2, "schedule": 3, "start": 4, "suspend": 5, "withdraw": 6 } }, "max_leaves": 15, "reduced_history": false } }, { "id": "reduced_hazard", "label": "Age and current stage only", "specification": { "risk_rows": 1202715, "event_intervals": 47377, "features": [ "age_days", "stage", "future_day" ], "categories": { "stage": { "A_Accepted": 0, "A_Complete": 1, "A_Concept": 2, "A_Incomplete": 3, "A_Submitted": 4, "A_Validating": 5 } }, "max_leaves": 15, "reduced_history": true } } ], "metrics": [ { "name": "restricted_mae_days", "model": "pooled_km", "estimate": 9.32588939, "unit": "days", "split": "December applications, prefixes before January 1", "lower": 9.19019809, "upper": 9.46153433, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "brier_14", "model": "pooled_km", "estimate": 0.24553719, "unit": "fraction", "split": "December applications, prefixes before January 1", "lower": 0.2431306, "upper": 0.24819501, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "coverage_80", "model": "pooled_km", "estimate": 0.91437632, "unit": "fraction", "split": "December applications, prefixes before January 1", "lower": 0.90594961, "upper": 0.92219873, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "restricted_mae_days", "model": "stage_age_km", "estimate": 8.72202325, "unit": "days", "split": "December applications, prefixes before January 1", "lower": 8.59660005, "upper": 8.86876719, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "brier_14", "model": "stage_age_km", "estimate": 0.2262431, "unit": "fraction", "split": "December applications, prefixes before January 1", "lower": 0.22152451, "upper": 0.2310817, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "coverage_80", "model": "stage_age_km", "estimate": 0.88259338, "unit": "fraction", "split": "December applications, prefixes before January 1", "lower": 0.87170366, "upper": 0.89352713, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "restricted_mae_days", "model": "hazard_boosting", "estimate": 8.58336024, "unit": "days", "split": "December applications, prefixes before January 1", "lower": 8.4587246, "upper": 8.73409819, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "brier_14", "model": "hazard_boosting", "estimate": 0.22506182, "unit": "fraction", "split": "December applications, prefixes before January 1", "lower": 0.21996188, "upper": 0.23016819, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "coverage_80", "model": "hazard_boosting", "estimate": 0.8850599, "unit": "fraction", "split": "December applications, prefixes before January 1", "lower": 0.87438161, "upper": 0.89602008, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "restricted_mae_days", "model": "reduced_hazard", "estimate": 8.67228414, "unit": "days", "split": "December applications, prefixes before January 1", "lower": 8.55064817, "upper": 8.81537262, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "brier_14", "model": "reduced_hazard", "estimate": 0.22447119, "unit": "fraction", "split": "December applications, prefixes before January 1", "lower": 0.21969947, "upper": 0.22966901, "confidence": 0.95 }, { "name": "coverage_80", "model": "reduced_hazard", "estimate": 0.88541226, "unit": "fraction", "split": "December applications, prefixes before January 1", "lower": 0.87470049, "upper": 0.89609056, "confidence": 0.95 } ], "uncertainty": "500 paired application-cluster bootstrap draws retain all evaluated prefixes of each application. Conditional on fitted models and one institutional/time cohort; no retraining uncertainty.", "assumptions": [ "The first Pending/Denied/Cancelled status is a defined workflow endpoint, not confirmed disbursement.", "All final prefixes have at least30-day outcome ascertainment; longer times remain capped.", "Lifecycle events are retained and elapsed gaps are not active service measurements.", "Capacity changes are explicit proportional scenarios, not identified staffing effects." ], "limitations": [ "One institution and one final arrival month; temporal generalization is not established.", "Early prefixes may omit later loops; unavailable prefixes and already-dispositioned cases are excluded with counts.", "All predictions and bands refer to a30-day restricted endpoint, not unrestricted remaining duration.", "Repeated prefixes are dependent and treated as application clusters.", "No resource-efficiency, causal automation, financial-saving or lending-decision claim is made.", "Independent technical review is pending." ], "tables": { "audit": { "applications": 31509, "events": 1202267, "activity_counts": { "A_Create Application": 31509, "A_Submitted": 20423, "W_Handle leads": 47264, "W_Complete application": 148900, "A_Concept": 31509, "A_Accepted": 31509, "O_Create Offer": 42995, "O_Created": 42995, "O_Sent (mail and online)": 39707, "W_Call after offers": 191092, "A_Complete": 31362, "W_Validate application": 209496, "A_Validating": 38816, "O_Returned": 23305, "W_Call incomplete files": 168529, "A_Incomplete": 23055, "O_Accepted": 17228, "A_Pending": 17228, "A_Denied": 3753, "O_Refused": 4695, "O_Cancelled": 20898, "A_Cancelled": 10431, "O_Sent (online only)": 2026, "W_Assess potential fraud": 3282, "W_Personal Loan collection": 22, "W_Shortened completion ": 238 }, "lifecycle_counts": { "complete": 475306, "schedule": 149104, "withdraw": 21844, "start": 128227, "suspend": 215402, "ate_abort": 85224, "resume": 127160 }, "unordered_traces_sorted": 0, "repeated_event_ids_within_application": 0, "events_with_offer_id": 150854, "distinct_offer_references": 42995, "offer_cross_application_conflicts": 0, "applications_without_target_status": 98, "file_cutoff_utc": "2017-02-01T14:11:03.499Z", "cohorts": { "development": { "applications_considered": 20430, "prefix_slots": 61290, "prefixes": 57493, "applications": 20424, "already_dispositioned": 1930, "too_short": 1030, "entry_after_cutoff": 837, "administratively_censored": 466, "restricted_horizon_incomplete": 0, "prefix_counts": { "5": 20424, "10": 20258, "20": 16811 } }, "validation": { "applications_considered": 3042, "prefix_slots": 9126, "prefixes": 8009, "applications": 3038, "already_dispositioned": 366, "too_short": 188, "entry_after_cutoff": 563, "administratively_censored": 236, "restricted_horizon_incomplete": 0, "prefix_counts": { "5": 3038, "10": 3011, "20": 1960 } }, "final_training": { "applications_considered": 23472, "prefix_slots": 70416, "prefixes": 66902, "applications": 23472, "already_dispositioned": 2296, "too_short": 1218, "entry_after_cutoff": 0, "administratively_censored": 27, "restricted_horizon_incomplete": 0, "prefix_counts": { "5": 23472, "10": 23446, "20": 19984 } }, "test": { "applications_considered": 2366, "prefix_slots": 7098, "prefixes": 6247, "applications": 2365, "already_dispositioned": 243, "too_short": 150, "entry_after_cutoff": 458, "administratively_censored": 183, "restricted_horizon_incomplete": 0, "prefix_counts": { "5": 2365, "10": 2294, "20": 1588 } } } }, "tuning": [ { "leaves": 7, "validation_mae_days": 7.58711661, "risk_rows": 1028451 }, { "leaves": 15, "validation_mae_days": 7.56473943, "risk_rows": 1028451 } ], "selected_leaves": 15, "primary_difference": { "comparison": "hazard_boosting minus stage_age_km", "estimate": -0.13866301, "lower": -0.18087713, "upper": -0.09285385, "confidence": 0.95 }, "diagnostics": [ { "model": "pooled_km", "prefix": 0, "stage": "all", "prefixes": 6247, "applications": 2365, "mean_observed_restricted_days": 18.40634249, "mean_predicted_restricted_days": 18.31385623, "mean_lower_days": 5.0, "mean_upper_days": 30.0, "mae_days": 9.32588939, "brier_14": 0.24553719, "late_rate": 0.56680761, "coverage_80": 0.91437632 }, { "model": "pooled_km", "prefix": 0, "stage": "A_Accepted", "prefixes": 2504, "applications": 1888, "mean_observed_restricted_days": 18.97908938, "mean_predicted_restricted_days": 18.31385623, "mean_lower_days": 5.0, "mean_upper_days": 30.0, "mae_days": 9.03812311, "brier_14": 0.24397941, "late_rate": 0.57858347, "coverage_80": 0.95817875 }, { "model": "pooled_km", "prefix": 0, "stage": "A_Complete", "prefixes": 1054, "applications": 1054, "mean_observed_restricted_days": 13.87950664, "mean_predicted_restricted_days": 18.31385623, "mean_lower_days": 5.0, "mean_upper_days": 30.0, "mae_days": 10.85540252, "brier_14": 0.26880825, "late_rate": 0.39089184, "coverage_80": 0.74573055 }, { "model": "pooled_km", "prefix": 0, "stage": "A_Concept", "prefixes": 842, "applications": 778, "mean_observed_restricted_days": 20.28176796, "mean_predicted_restricted_days": 18.31385623, "mean_lower_days": 5.0, "mean_upper_days": 30.0, "mae_days": 8.58616849, "brier_14": 0.23493403, "late_rate": 0.64696133, "coverage_80": 0.97458564 }, { "model": "pooled_km", "prefix": 0, "stage": "A_Submitted", "prefixes": 1581, "applications": 1573, "mean_observed_restricted_days": 20.8519685, "mean_predicted_restricted_days": 18.31385623, "mean_lower_days": 5.0, "mean_upper_days": 30.0, "mae_days": 8.7162191, "brier_14": 0.23138985, "late_rate": 0.67375328, "coverage_80": 0.97559055 }, { "model": "pooled_km", "prefix": 0, "stage": "A_Validating", "prefixes": 257, "applications": 257, "mean_observed_restricted_days": 5.86381323, "mean_predicted_restricted_days": 18.31385623, "mean_lower_days": 5.0, "mean_upper_days": 30.0, "mae_days": 13.53738055, "brier_14": 0.30919346, "late_rate": 0.08560311, "coverage_80": 0.43579767 }, { "model": "pooled_km", "prefix": 5, "stage": "all", "prefixes": 2365, "applications": 2365, "mean_observed_restricted_days": 19.89895105, "mean_predicted_restricted_days": 18.31385623, "mean_lower_days": 5.0, "mean_upper_days": 30.0, "mae_days": 8.79132063, "brier_14": 0.23770043, "late_rate": 0.62604895, "coverage_80": 0.96520979 }, { "model": "pooled_km", "prefix": 5, "stage": "A_Accepted", "prefixes": 597, "applications": 597, "mean_observed_restricted_days": 18.03129252, "mean_predicted_restricted_days": 18.31385623, "mean_lower_days": 5.0, "mean_upper_days": 30.0, "mae_days": 9.18568814, "brier_14": 0.24978536, "late_rate": 0.53469388, "coverage_80": 0.93537415 }, { "model": "pooled_km", "prefix": 5, "stage": "A_Concept", "prefixes": 195, "applications": 195, "mean_observed_restricted_days": 17.96929825, "mean_predicted_restricted_days": 18.31385623, "mean_lower_days": 5.0, "mean_upper_days": 30.0, "mae_days": 8.18113519, "brier_14": 0.25205405, "late_rate": 0.51754386, "coverage_80": 0.97587719 }, { "model": "pooled_km", "prefix": 5, "stage": "A_Submitted", "prefixes": 1573, "applications": 1573, "mean_observed_restricted_days": 20.85450712, "mean_predicted_restricted_days": 18.31385623, "mean_lower_days": 5.0, "mean_upper_days": 30.0, "mae_days": 8.71185945, "brier_14": 0.23129292, "late_rate": 0.67448603, "coverage_80": 0.97548761 }, { "model": "pooled_km", "prefix": 10, "stage": "all", "prefixes": 2294, "applications": 2294, "mean_observed_restricted_days": 19.60710238, "mean_predicted_restricted_days": 18.31385623, "mean_lower_days": 5.0, "mean_upper_days": 30.0, "mae_days": 9.01350949, "brier_14": 0.24015681, "late_rate": 0.60748017, "coverage_80": 0.96562146 }, { "model": "pooled_km", "prefix": 10, "stage": "A_Accepted", "prefixes": 1661, "applications": 1661, "mean_observed_restricted_days": 19.1265121, "mean_predicted_restricted_days": 18.31385623, "mean_lower_days": 5.0, "mean_upper_days": 30.0, "mae_days": 9.10147204, "brier_14": 0.24374002, "late_rate": 0.58039315, 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