A growth team wants to understand how campaign-credit rules change with attribution windows and incomplete journeys. Study whether sequence-aware conversion forecasts improve prediction and whether channel/touch credit is stable enough to inform further experiments.
Proposed design & source
Discrete-time hazards; sequence learning; attribution sensitivity
Reconstruct eligible user journeys from timestamped impressions and clicks. Compare last-touch and time-decay summaries with a discrete-time conversion-hazard model and a compact sequence model. Apply the same observation and conversion windows across methods; use only available anonymized touch identifiers.
Evaluation: Use chronological cutoffs, a gap for delayed conversions and user-grouped sensitivity checks. Report log loss, calibration, time-to-conversion error where identifiable, and credit-rank stability under window changes, touch deletion and identity fragmentation. Compare to a no-history baseline.
Boundary: Thirty days of observational, anonymized advertising records do not reveal causal channel lift. Do not convert attribution credit into verified incremental ROAS or invent absent spend fields.
Criteo Attribution Modeling for Bidding ↗