A risk analytics leader must understand how probability errors affect a hypothetical review policy. Compare interpretable and flexible default models under asymmetric error costs and limited manual-review capacity.
Proposed design & source
Proper scoring rules; probability calibration; expected loss
Use the available repayment, bill and payment history to predict the provided next-month default outcome. Fit logistic and monotone/additive baselines plus boosted trees. Reserve an untouched customer-level test set, calibrate on separate validation data and document feature timing.
Evaluation: Use nested development folds and the fixed test set; do not invent a temporal holdout absent multiple cohorts. Report Brier score, log loss, calibration by risk band, PR performance and decision-cost sensitivity. Analyze subgroup errors without making automatic individual lending decisions.
Boundary: This is an older Taiwan cohort with no prospective U.S. validation. Default prediction is not fraud detection; assumed exposure and losses must be separated from observed labels and no actual lending policy is validated.
Default of Credit Card Clients ↗