A benefits or insurance planning team must understand how mortality assumptions affect a long-duration payment obligation. Quantify sensitivity to table choice, longevity improvement and discount rates without pretending the tables are individual training records.
Proposed design & source
Life-contingent valuation; survival probabilities; sensitivity analysis
Select compatible SOA tables with clear population, vintage and select/ultimate or generational definitions. Convert death probabilities into survival curves and expected payment streams. Apply a clearly synthetic cohort of ages and benefits, then compare deterministic and explicitly assumed stochastic improvement scenarios.
Evaluation: Check survival monotonicity, probability identities and actuarial present values against hand-calculated cases. Compare suitable table vintages and run rate/improvement stress grids. Do not report predictive accuracy without separate death and exposure observations.
Boundary: This is a transparent scenario engine using published rates and synthetic obligations. It is not a fitted individual mortality model, an audited reserve calculation or a validated forecast of future longevity.
Mortality and Other Rate Tables (MORT) ↗