A fleet planner must choose when to replace an asset when failure timing is uncertain. Test whether calibrated remaining-life distributions improve a simulated replacement policy relative to point estimates.
Proposed design & source
Degradation modeling; quantile sequences; asymmetric decision loss
Use engine-level C-MAPSS train/test partitions and preserve operating-condition subsets. Compare an engineered degradation-index baseline, boosted quantile regression and one sequence model. Make remaining-life label capping and sensor normalization explicit, including ablations.
Evaluation: Report engine-level RUL error, the benchmark's asymmetric score and interval coverage by operating condition and life stage. Test an unseen-condition subset. Simulate replacement using only sequentially available measurements and compare fixed-age, point-estimate and uncertainty-aware rules.
Boundary: C-MAPSS is simulator-generated. Both asset behavior and the policy economics must be labeled as simulation; no real fleet savings or safety validation are established.
C-MAPSS turbofan degradation ↗