S44 / Real estate and property management
Housing-market forecasts that acknowledge revisions and turning points
A property strategy team needs to compare regional rent and home-value trajectories without treating estimated indices as executable investment returns. Test whether pooled models detect changing momentum better than simple trend extrapolation.
Planned topic
Proposed design & source
Dynamic factors; local trends; real-time/vintage evaluation
Select stable ZHVI/ZORI regional series with documented methodology and available vintages. Compare local trend/seasonal models with a dynamic-factor or pooled forecasting model. Use lagged regional indicators from the same release; introduce outside macro series only with explicit as-of publication alignment.
Evaluation: Use rolling 3-, 6- and 12-month horizons. Report scaled error, directional accuracy, interval coverage and performance around turning points. Compare original-vintage and latest-revised backtests where possible; otherwise label the exercise a revised-data retrospective forecast.
Boundary: Regional indices are modeled aggregates, not individual asset returns, rental cash flows or buy/sell recommendations. Historical revision awareness does not remove uncertainty about future structural changes.
Zillow Research housing data ↗
S45 / Real estate and property management
Transparent screening of property redevelopment opportunities
A real-estate strategy team needs a defensible way to prioritize parcels for further diligence. Build a transparent screening framework that weighs current use, building characteristics and simple utilization proxies under multiple business preferences.
Planned topic
Proposed design & source
Multi-criteria decisions; Pareto dominance; robust ranking
Use PLUTO tax-lot geometry, land use, building age/area and documented zoning-related fields. Validate units and implausible records. Derive a clearly approximate unused-floor-area indicator only where compatible fields permit; use multi-criteria ranking and robust optimization rather than training on an invented redevelopment-profit label.
Evaluation: Compare simple size/age filters with the multi-criteria shortlist. Report rank stability under weight/input perturbations, missing-data sensitivity and independent spot checks against source attributes. If outcome data are later added, define a separate temporal validation study.
Boundary: PLUTO is an inventory, not transaction-return or tenant-demand data. Simple floor-area calculations do not certify buildability; project economics, entitlements and parcel-specific constraints require additional evidence.
PLUTO / MapPLUTO ↗